Some argue that the U.S. is facing a severe recession, but this isn’t being reflected in the job market—leaving workers feeling optimistic about their future.
Key Details
- A majority of experts and CEOs argue that the U.S. is facing a recession between now and 2024 when the Federal Reserve expects to start seeing major decreases in inflation.
- Tech companies are firing tens of thousands of employees but this may prove to be unreflective of the overall state of the economy.
- U.S. adult workers are overall optimistic about their job prospects across all income groups, and the majority are not afraid that they are likely to lose their jobs within the next month, Axios reports.
- The U.S. previously saw stronger-than-expected job numbers this month with 261,000 new jobs in October and an unemployment rate of 3.7%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its next report on Friday, December 2, and early projections show another 200,000 new jobs
Why it’s Important
The coming recession may be less painful than anticipated—at least for average employees and workers who may not lose their jobs and increase unemployment statistics. The most vulnerable jobs at the moment are white-collar positions in companies that over hired as a result of positive business during the COVID pandemic. The market is correcting the over-staffing issues but other industries may not be in the same position.
“Despite weakening demand for their goods and services, many businesses are looking to retain or even add staff, rather than let them go—hoarding labor that they know they’ll need once the economy starts accelerating again,” says Bloomberg.
Job growth continues strong even as other negative economic indicators like consumer confidence lowering and inflation remaining high. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports monthly job growth of 407,000 per month this year with an additional 200,000 predicted for the month of November.
The jobless rate in September was only 4.4% and projections suggest unemployment won’t rise above 3.3 million people, according to Bloomberg Economics. This would put the recession far below previous global recessions in terms of job loss such as the 5.1 million in 2001.
Notable Quote
“Despite consumers being pessimistic, economists being pessimistic, and the Federal Reserve intentionally reducing demand—workers remain very optimistic,” says Morning Consult analyst Jesse Wheeler.